IPO 2026.06.12 · STAGGERED RELEASE · 9 EVENTS / 366 D
IPO Price
$135.00
Day-1 Close
+19.0%
IPO Size
~4.2%
Musk Lock
366 D
Starting float
~4%
of total shares at IPO
First window
AUG 11
post Q2, up to 20%
180-day unlock
DEC 09
remainder, most holders
Release events
09
spread over ~12 mo
Cumulative locked shares released over time, against an estimate of how much actually reaches the tape.
Stack conditions to read the qualitative pressure on the stock. Educational heuristic — not a forecast.
A traditional IPO uses a single 180-day "cliff" — on one date, a wave of insider shares can hit the market at once, often pressuring the price. SpaceX instead meters supply across roughly nine release events tied to earnings dates and time-based tranches. The aim is to spread out selling from long-tenured shareholders so no single day delivers a violent supply shock, which is generally friendlier to retail buyers who entered at or after the IPO.
Elon Musk — who controls roughly 42% of equity and about 85% of voting power — and certain major investors agreed to a separate 366-day lock-up with no early-release provisions. His shares first become eligible to transfer around June 13, 2027, a year after the staggered schedule begins. Because he holds the dominant stake and voting control, his commitment to stay locked for a full year is widely read as a stabilizing signal: the largest potential seller is sidelined through the entire 2026 unlock window.